Russell quickly narrowed down over 1,000 predictors to only 8 using SPM's variable importance ranking. And those 8 predictors were responsible for nearly half the variation in the test samples alone.
Using SPM's "shaving from the top" feature, Russell could quickly see that one variable had a significantly greater effect on R-squared than any of the other variables. It turned out that this was the variable associated with the feed stream to the crystallization system but its impact on the final product was not clearly understood until Russell created an SPM model.
Then, with SPM's partial dependency plots, Russell could see why this variable was so important in the unreliability of the particle size. SPM's partial dependency plots showed how this variable would likely change in response to changes in where they were "running on the distribution curve."
"We're running on the steep part of this distribution curve," Russell said. "On lucky days, the coefficient of variation is going to be low, but on unlucky days, the coefficient of variation is going to be high. Without SPM, I'd never know that."
Satisfied his goal had been met, Russell found a few ways they could reduce the variation in the final size of their corn sugar crystals and help food manufacturers use those ingredients to improve their products for the consumers.
*This case study was created using Companion by Minitab, prior to the 2021 Introduction to Minitab Engage.